Here are the daily charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.
The gold ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The gold ETF ($126.59 on June 7) is up 4.4% year to date and is 14% above its Aug. 15 low of $111.06. GLD is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $121.78 and $119.28, respectively. The weekly chart is positive with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $122.74 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $118.76. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 39.45 last week, up from 27.33 on May 31.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to the quarterly and semiannual value levels at $122.55 and $120.36, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength its monthly risky level at $129.58.
The commodity ETF is heavily weighted to energy by about 60%.
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)
The commodities ETF ($15.04 on June 7) is up 7.3% year to date and up 11.4% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50 following the volatility in Nymex crude oil. This ETF is also in bear market territory, down 20% below its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. GSG is below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converged at $16.11 and $16.14, respectively. The ETF is between its monthly value level at $12.87 and its quarterly risky level at $17.13. The weekly chart is negative with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $15.71 and below its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $15.54. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 42.21 last week, down from 54.08 on May 31.
Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to its monthly value level at $12.81 and reduce holdings on strength to its quarterly risky level at $17.13.
The weekly chart for Nymex crude oil ($53.99 on June 7) has a negative weekly chart with oil below its five-week modified moving average at $58.37 with its 200-week simple moving average at $52.61. The 12x3x3 weekly stochastic reading fell to 44.96 last week, down from 57.68 on May 31. Semiannual, annual and monthly value levels are $50.84, $38.76 and $38.54, respectively, with weekly and quarterly risky levels at $54.75 and $68.52, respectively.
The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the Dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)
The dollar ETF ($26.04 on June 7) is up 2.3% year to date and up 12.6% since trading as low as $23.12 in early 2018. UUP is between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $26.17 and $25.72, respectively. The weekly chart is neutral with the ETF below its five-week modified average at $26.15 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $25.08. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 80.43 last week, down from on May 31. A close below $26.15 this week will downgrade the weekly chart to negative.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to annual and quarterly value levels at $25.47 and $23.89, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to its semiannual and monthly risky levels at $26.39 and $26.53, respectively.
How to use my value levels and risky levels:
Value levels and risky levels are based upon the last nine weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual closes. The first set of levels was based upon the closes on Dec. 31. The original semiannual and annual levels remain in play. The weekly level changes each week; the monthly level was changed at the end of January, February, March, April and May. The quarterly level was changed at the end of March. My theory is that nine years of volatility between closes are enough to assume that all possible bullish or bearish events for the stock are factored in. To capture share price volatility, investors should buy on weakness to a value level and reduce holdings on strength to a risky level. A pivot is a value level or risky level that was violated within its time horizon. Pivots act as magnets that have a high probability of being tested again before its time horizon expires.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.