NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – With Trend Down, Sellers Could Return on Test of .6609 to .6627

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The New Zealand Dollar closed higher on Friday in a lackluster session as traders awaited further news on the US-China trade negotiations. Traders showed limited reaction to the new tariffs that President Trump imposed on Chinese imports. The tariffs on about US$200 billion of Chinese goods increased from 10 percent to 25 percent. Traders reacted as if there is still time to strike a deal to end the trade dispute because of positive comments from the Trump Administration and Chinese officials.

On Friday, the NZD/USD settled at .6599, up 0.0011 or +0.16%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6531 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out .6686 will change the main trend to up. This is not expected at this time because of the recent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and another possible cut later in the year.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6654 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is .6686 to .6531. Its retracement zone at .6609 to .6627 was tested on Friday. This is a potential resistance area.

The main range is .6784 to .6531. Its retracement zone at .6658 to .6687 is another potential resistance zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at .6599, the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .6609.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6609 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of last week’s low at .6531. Taking out this level will mean investors are starting to price in another near-term rate cut. This could eventually drive the market into the October 16, 2018 main bottom at .6465.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6609 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. This could lead to a test of the short-term Fibonacci level at .6627. Since the main trend is down, we’re looking for sellers to re-emerge inside .6609 to .6627. However, if the buying is strong enough to overcome .6627 then this may force some aggressive short-covering with potential targets .6654 and .6658.