Pritam Kumar Patnaik
Last week, oil prices saw some recovery after harrowing few weeks, when it had corrected close to 16 percent. The fall in crude prices was primarily due to trade tensions between US and China, economic growth concerns, dwindling demand and building of inventories.
Adding to the woes was the US’s threat to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico unless Mexico acts to stop the flow of illegal immigrants across the border. But news of a possible delay in imposition of the tariff on Mexican imports let to recovery in crude prices. Both the US and Mexican governments seem to have reached some agreement on the migrant issue.
Meanwhile on the supply side, US crude, gasoline and distillate stocks rose over the last few weeks. Crude inventories rose 6.8 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for 849,000 barrel drawdown, to their highest since July 2017 and about 6 percent above the 5-year average for this time of year.
Furthermore, undermining OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market has been surging US output to record highs, leading to more of its crude being exported. US crude production added another 1,00,000 bpd to a new peak at 12.4 million bpd.
Looking ahead, the market is looking towards the upcoming OPEC meet for clearer direction. For the week, Brent August 2019 contract on ICE could remain within the range of $57-65 per barrel, while NYMEX July 2019 contract could remain around $50-56 per barrel.
Copper: Buy on dips. Buy MCX Copper June 2019 contract is in the range of Rs 404-405 with a stop loss of Rs 399 and a target price of Rs 415.
Nickel: Buy on dips. Buy MCX Nickel June 2019 contract in the range of Rs 840-845 with a stop loss of Rs 825 and a target price of Rs 890.
Aluminium: Sell MCX Aluminium June 2019 contract in the range of Rs 143-144 with a stop loss of Rs 146 and a target price of Rs 138.
Gold: Buy on dips. Buy MCX Gold August 2019 contract in the range of Rs 32,550-35,600 with a stop loss of Rs 32,400 and a target price of Rs 33,000.
Silver: Buy MCX Silver July 2019 contract in the range of Rs 37,000-37,050 with a stop loss of Rs 36,600 and a target price of Rs 37,800.
Crude Oil: Buy MCX Crude June 2019 contract in the range of Rs 3,650-3,700 with a stop loss of Rs 3,550 and a target price of Rs 3,900.
MCX Mentha Oil: Sell MCX Mentha oil June 2019 contract in the range of Rs 1,333-1,335 with a stop loss of Rs 1,370 and a target price of Rs 1,250.
The author is Head, Commodities at Reliance Commodities
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