Wall Street's rally signals more conviction in the market in 2023 - listen to 'The Homestretch'

Here’s a transcript of “The Homestretch”

>>> HI.

THIS IS JIM CRAMER AND JEFF

MARKS WITH “THE HOMESTRETCH.”

PEOPLE LOVE THIS NUMBER.

I HAVE TO TELL YOU, IT IS THE

SIX BETTER — I DIDN’T SAY

GREAT, CPI NUMBER THAT WE’VE HAD

RIGHT IN A ROW.

AND BUYERS ARE BUYING.

I THINK THIS IS PRETTY

INTERESTING.

IT SHOWS THE TENOR OF THIS

MARKET.

THIS NUMBER WAS SOMETHING THAT

WE WERE EXPECTING.

IT WASN’T BETTER THAN EXPECTED.

AND, YET, STOCKS TOOK OFF.

SO WHAT’S YOUR TAKE AWAY?

>> WELL, YEAH, I THINK

EXPECTATIONS WERE DEFINITELY

BUILDING.

THAT WAS GOING TO BE A GOOD

NUMBER.

WE GOT IT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS.

I WOULD SAY IN TERMS OF

INFLATION, IT IS INTERESTING TO

ME THAT, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW,

FED PRESIDENT IS ON THE TAPE

THIS AFTERNOON SAYING, ALL

RIGHT.

WE NEED TO GET ABOVE 5% AS SOON

AS POSSIBLE.

THE MARKET IS WORKING THROUGH

IT.

>> THAT IS IMPORTANT.

HE IS A NONVOTER, HE IS FROM ST.

LOUIS.

WHEN I SAW THE MARKET RUN

THROUGH THAT, I SAID TO MYSELF,

WITH HE COULD BE IN A LARRY

WILLIAM KIND OF MARKET.

LARRY IS THE MARKET HISTORIAN I

KNOW WHO SAYS WE’RE IN FOR A

GOOD RUN.

PEOPLE SHOULD GET OUT OF THE

WAY.

IT’S NOT GOING TO BE LIKE THIS.

>> STICK TO THE QUALITY ANGLE.

I’M SEEING A LOT OF MEME STOCKS.

I’M SEEING A LOT OF UNPROFITABLE

COMPANIES RALLY BIG RIGHT NOW.

AND I DON’T THINK THE MOVES ARE

AS EGREGIOUS AS WHAT WE SAW IN

AUGUST WHEN WE POINTED OUT THAT

THERE WAS A LOT OF FROTH IN THE

MARKET.

BUT USUALLY WHEN I DO SEE BIG

SWINGS IN THE STOCKS, IT TENDS

TO BE AN OBVIOUS SIGN.

>> YOU KNOW, I HAVE A DIFFERENT

EMOTION ABOUT THAT.

I THINK WHAT MATTERS IS WE’RE

OVERBOUGHT.

I DON’T TRUST THE MARKET WHEN

WE’RE OVERBOUGHT.

BANKS ARE DIFFICULT TO

UNDERSTAND.

AND WE NEED TO GET RID OF SOME

OF THE FROTH OF BED, BATH &

BEYOND KIND OF THING.

I WAS HOPING THAT WOULD REVERSE

ITSELF.

BUT THE OVERALL IDEA THAT WE CAN

RALLY ON NEWS THAT IS NOT GOOD

IS SOMETHING THAT IS NEW FOR

2023.

I’LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE.

WHEN WE FIRST DID OUR MORNING

MEETING, UNH WAS DOWN.

AND IN THE OLD DAYS, IN 2022,

UNH IS DOWN.

IT REVERSED.

TOMORROW IT REPORTS.

>> YES.

>> AND WHAT I’M SEEING ARE SIGNS

OF WHAT I REGARD AS BEING MORE

CONVICTION THAN PEOPLE HAD IN

2022.

>> IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE

POSSIBILITY OF A SOFT LANDING IS

MUCH — IS MORE POSSIBLE THAN

WHAT WE THOUGHT PROBABLY, YOU

KNOW, A MONTH AGO.

>> AND WE DID THE MORNING NEWS.

ENERGY WAS STRONG THEN.

VERY INTERESTING.

THE YOU HAVE TAIWAN SEMI REPORT

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

AND THEY HAVE NOTHING GOOD TO

SAY ABOUT SHORTING.

AND PEOPLE ARE LOOKING THROUGH

IT.

>> IT SEEMS THAT THEY’RE KIND OF

SAYING THIS RETURN TO GROWTH IS

STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND

HALF OF THIS YEAR.

WHICH, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A LOT

OF INVENTORY THAT A LOT OF THE

SEMIS NEED TO WORK THROUGH.

>> THAT IS STILL THE PROBLEM

WITH AMD.

I’M NOT SURE ABOUT AMD.

>> YEAH.

>> JUST SO LOW.

>> PCs ARE A PROBLEM.

DEFINITELY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

DATA CENTER IS STILL UP FOR

DEBATE.

ARE THESE BIG HYPER SCALERS.

YOU KNOW, THE AMAZONS OF THE

WORLD, THE MICROSOFTS.

ARE THEY GOING TO PULL BACK ON

SPENDING TO PROTECT THEIR BOTTOM

LINES WHICH IN TURN WOULD HURT

DATA CENTER?

I STILL THINK —

>> I THINK THEY HAVE TO.

THE REASON THEY HAVE TO IS

BECAUSE IF THEY’RE CUTTING

PEOPLE FROM THE GOOGLE HEALTH

DIVISION, YOU KNOW, 200 PEOPLE,

WE’RE STILL WAITING FOR THE BIG

SHOE TO DROP.

THE BIG SHOE TO DROP IS GOOGLE

SPENDING $9.5 BILLION FROM DATA

CENTERS LAST YEAR.

THEY DON’T NEED IT.

THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH DEMAND.

HOWEVER, WE HAVE COMMUNICATION

SERVICES GOING STRONG.

THAT’S BEEN A STOCK WE OWN.

IT IS INTERESTING.

>> YEP.

RATES DOWN.

OIL UP BIG.

METALS RALLYING.

>> COPPER.

YOU KNOW, I REGRET NEWCORP.

BUT SOMETIMES THINGS COLLAPSE.

IT’S GOING TO BE VERY GOOD.

>> YEAH, A LOT OF STEEL.

A LOT OF DEMAND FOR STEEL AND

ALSO FOR CHINA REOPENING AS

WELL.

EVEN THOUGH WE’RE NOT TAKING ON

ANY CHINESE STEEL.

IT IS GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE

INDUSTRY.

BUT IT’S A DEFENSES ARE NOT

WORKING TODAY.

>> PEPSICO.

PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT THE FED

HAS TO BE ALMOST DONE.

OKAY?

AND THAT’S JUST A PROCESS THAT

WE TALKED ABOUT IN THE MORNING.

AND IF THAT’S THE CASE, THEN YOU

WANT TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE

AGGRESSIVE.

BUT PEOPLE DON’T KNOW WHAT TO BE

AGGRESSIVE IN BECAUSE THEY DON’T

WANT TO BE IN SOMETHING THAT’S

ABOUT TO REPORT AND HAVE A BAD

NUMBER.

I DON’T SEE PEOPLE PILING INTO

THE BANKS EVEN THOUGH THEY WOULD

BENEFIT IN THIS SITUATION.

THEY’RE AFRAID.

SO WHAT I SAY IS CASE BY CASE.

AND WHAT PEOPLE ARE BUYING ARE,

YOU KNOW, THEY’RE BUYING BOEING,

CATERPILLAR AND SALESFORCE.

I’M STILL DOING MORE WORK, JEFF,

ON SALESFORCE.

I DON’T LIKE WHAT I’M HEARING.

I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR MORE ABOUT

HOW THEY’RE REALLY DOING.

>> INTERESTING PARTNERSHIP TODAY

ANNOUNCED WITH THEM BETWEEN

WALMART AND SALESFORCE.

>> I KNOW MARK THOUGHT THAT WAS

VERY IMPORTANT.

HE POINTED IT OUT TO ME.

THE PROBLEM IS I STILL WANT TO

GET DOWN — I WANT TO GET TO THE

POINT WHERE I’M VERY COMFORTABLE

AND SALESFORCE IS MAKING MONEY

ON EACH THING.

AND, YOU KNOW, THEY ARE GOING TO

DO $31 BILLION THIS YEAR.

SLACK AND SMALL COMPANIES,

THEY’RE 10% TO 12% OF THE WHOLE

$30 BILLION WHICH SAYS THERE IS

ORGANIC GROWTH.

>> OKAY.

>> OTHER ONES?

WE FINALLY, YOU KNOW, I TOLD YOU

THIS IS THE BIG YEAR.

>> BIG MOVE WE’RE SEEING THERE.

AS WELL AS KOTERA.

HE WAS ON.

>> CONVINCED A LOT OF PEOPLE

THAT THE ISSUES ARE TAKEN CARE

OF.

>> AT THE SAME TIME, WE DID

TRIM — WE TEASED THIS A LITTLE

BIT ON “THE MORNING MEETING.”

WE DID TRIM HALLIBURTON.

HAD SUCH A GOOD RUN.

OIL SERVICES IS SUCH A GREAT

PLACE TO BE WITHIN THE ENERGY

AND OIL COMPLEX.

AND AMD —

>> AMD, IT IS THE ONE THAT

SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOWN IF YOU

TAKE TAIWAN SEMI LITERALLY.

I DON’T KNOW.

THEY CLAIM THEY’RE MOVING ENOUGH

CHIPS FOR THE AUTOS.

MY HOME WORK SAYS THEY’RE NOT.

I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BE — I

DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BE

THANKFUL ABOUT TAIWAN SEMI.

>> THE NEW CEO IS GOOD.

>> THEY’RE PAYING HER.

THAT PAY BACK IS RIDICULOUS.

COSTCO, I NEVER LIKE TO SEE

COSTCO DOWN.

I DON’T.

I DON’T THINK IT’S — I THINK

IT’S A — I DON’T THINK IT

MATTERS.

NOTHING THERE.

SPECIFIC A LITTLE PROFIT TAKING.

>> SAME WITH ESTEE LAUDER.

WE DID TRIM OUR POSITION.

>> THAT WAS SMART.

>> YEAH.

>> AND THEN, YOU KNOW, PROCTOR

IS KIND OF THE DEFINITION OF

WHAT IS NOT GOING TO WORK AT

THIS VERY MOMENT.

ONE THING I WANT TO TALK ABOUT,

JIM, I LEARNED WHEN I WAS AT

GOLDMAN SACHS, IF YOU REALLY

THINK THAT EVERY SINGLE HORSE IS

GOING TO WIN THE RACE, THAT’S

RIDICULOUS.

THERE’S GOING TO BE ALL TIMES WE

HEAR A LOT OF PEOPLE COME ON AIR

AND THEY’LL SAY WELL SOMETHING’S

WRONG WITH THIS.

SOMETHING’S WRONG WITH THAT.

NO, WE HAVE A ROTATION.

IT’S A VICIOUS ROTATION.

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH

PEPSI.

HEADWINDS ARE GOING TO TAIL

WINDS.

IT CAN’T GO UP EVERY DAY.

>> YOU COULD USE THE SAME THING

WITH BASEBALL.

SOMETIMES THE TWO HITTER GOES TO

A SLUMP.

SOMETIMES THE EIGHT HITTER.

BUT THE COLLECTIVE DIVERSIFIED

PORTFOLIO IS WHAT YOU NEED TO

SCORE RUNS AND WIN GAMES.

>> I FIND AND I KNOW ALL OF OUR

CLUB MEMBERS ARE SPORTS FANS.

BUT THERE ARE ASPECTS OF SPORTS

THAT, ARE LET’S JUST SAY,

APPLICABLE.

AND, YOU KNOW, JOE DIMAGGIO DID

NOT — HE DID IN THE 57th GAME

AND THAT WAS IT.

NOW, WE HAVE GOT BIG EARNINGS

TOMORROW.

I DON’T WANT ANYONE TO TAKE ANY

ACTION UNTIL WE WRITE ABOUT IT.

>> RIGHT.

>> I THINK IT IS MORE THAN

LIKELY THAT WHAT PEOPLE SAY IS

WRONG ABOUT THE BANKS.

UNITED HEALTH WILL BE AFFECTED

AND HUMANA WHICH IS PART OF THIS

ROTATION.

I WANT PEOPLE TO REMEMBER YOU

SHOULD BUY HUMANA, NOT SELLING

IT.

THAT WAS A GREAT NUMBER.

IT GOT CAUGHT RIGHT IN THE

ROTATION.

WHEN THE ROTATION ENDS, PEOPLE

COME RIGHT BACK TO THAT.

AND YOU DID CLOSE US WE

COLLECTED AN AFTER TAX CHARGE

FOR JUST —

>> WELLS FARGO IS A CONFERENCE

CALL STOCK.

THAT CALL DOESN’T START UNTIL

12:00 NOON EASTERN.

YOU HAVE TO — IF YOU’RE LOOKING

TO BUY OR EVEN SELL AHEAD OF

THAT, OKAY, IT’S A CONFERENCE

CALL.

YOU HAVE TO HEAR WHAT THE CEO

HAS TO SAY WITH THE CFO.

ESPECIALLY WHAT THEY’RE THINKING

ABOUT 2023.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

NOW JUST ONCE AGAIN, I WANT TO

MAKE A POINT THAT NETFLIX THAT

LARRY WILLIAMS THAT COULD WORK.

THAT IS REFLECTED IN TODAY’S

ACTION.

THE OTHER THING I SEE, I GOT TO

TELL YOU, JEFF, OIL SEEMS TO

DIGEST WHAT CARLY WATER SAID.

>> IT DID.

>> IT DID GET DOWN.

BOUNCES.

NOW IT GOES TO $90.

SO WE’LL HOLD ON TO THOSE.

WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF THE

HALLIBURTON.

WE DID THAT BECAUSE WE ALWAYS

WANT DISCIPLINES AND CONVICTION.

HOWEVER, I THINK THE NEXT TOP

HAS TO BE — I DON’T WANT TO SAY

MUCH HIGHER, BUT NO MORE SLOW

BOILS.

THE I THINK IT CAN GO HIGHER.

ANYWAY, I KNOW THAT SOMETIMES IN

ON “THE HOMESTRETCH” WE RAMBLE A

BIT.

BUT THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS.

I THINK THAT THERE SAY

PROPENSITY TO BELIEVE THAT

EVERYTHING SOUNDS PERFECT.

THE REASON IS BECAUSE A LOT OF

TIMES PEOPLE ARE READING.

I DON’T READ.

JEFF DOESN’T READ.

WE THINK.

YOU GOT OUR INFORMATION.

WE HOPE TO COME BACK TOMORROW

FOR “THE MORNING MEETING” AND

THEN FOR “THE HOMESTRETCH.”

THANK YOU.