Billion dollar trade with used German automobiles?

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Forecast of electric vehicles in Germany until 2030
Billion dollar trade with used German automobiles?

The target of 15 million electric vehicles in Germany by 2030 will not be achieved. In addition, the export of electronic vehicles for tax subsidies is extreme.

The announcement of the main goals is part of a typical political repertoire, of course also when it comes to electric vehicles. The Merkel government had shown the way and in 2016 set a goal to have one million electric vehicles on German roads four years later. As is well known, it took longer and then only operated in mid-2021 after the environmental bonus was increased to a record level of about five digits.


In its coalition agreement, the traffic lights government has set a target of having 15 million electric vehicles by 2030. In an initial assessment in November 2021, Dataforce doubted that this goal could be achieved under certain conditions.

The new traffic lights government announced a bigger goal by the end of 2021. “Our goal is to have at least 15 million fully functional vehicles by 2030,” read page 22 of the coalition agreement. Frankfurt-based Dataforce, a market research company specializing in the automotive market, had already taken this announcement as an opportunity for more in-depth analysis last year. Their concisely summarized conclusion: It will not work.

In fact, eleven million plug-ins

Along the way to complete the electrification, market experts are now calculating plug-in components as part of the vehicles integrated into the new stock forecast from May 4, 2022 and say: Even that is not enough. With so-called “plug-in vehicles”, i.e. BEV and PHEV rechargeable, analysts expect a real figure of approximately 11 million by 2030. For comparison: Currently (as of March 2022) a total of one million passenger vehicles 48.54 registered in Germany. Even if this number does not continue to rise as it did in previous years, this means that by 2030, EVs will account for 23 percent of car fleet, ie less than a quarter.

For this, however, everything would have to be run smoothly, productive as well as customer willing to buy. As is well known, the first one is now very moving, the delivery times are getting longer and longer. And a reduction in purchasing fees for electronic vehicles or the abolition of plug-in hybrids from 2023 will not increase the actual demand.

Tax subsidy for export vehicles

Another feature warned by Dataforce to achieve the goal set seems to be obscure at first: New registered electric vehicles must also remain in Germany. But in their market analysis, the Frankfurt-based company obtained results that have the potential to question the entire funding strategy: According to this, 40.4 percent of all recently registered 2018 2018VV / PHEV have not been re-registered in Germany for three years. later. .


Of the nearly 69,000 new registrants from 2018, only 40,000 were still in stock by the end of 2021. The failure rate is very high at 40.4 percent.

Since it can be assumed that these vehicles, which are less than three years old, did not crash into accidental deaths or were removed, it is clear that this is a good deal at the expense of German taxpayers: funded cars. are considered overseas as used vehicles after a short period of ownership. A condition that has been known for a long time, but not to this extent.

Creative entrepreneurs and their clients have been taking advantage of a completely legal loophole for some time now. A new electronic car has been registered, a subsidy has been paid and the car is resold after six months as a used car in other European Union countries at a new price excluding the amount of the grant. This is good business for all involved: the seller is driving a new car for free for half a year, the buyer (especially cars going to Scandinavian countries) gets a new car at a much lower price due to such a declaration. a used car a new car would cost there. And traders make money nonetheless from behind and outside.

Schmitz car park

Highly lucrative business: Tesla models are in high demand. This seller openly and commercially sells subsidized electronic cars abroad in a short period of time.

To date, it has been assumed that almost every eighth car spends its entire life abroad in this way, backed by the German Stromer grant. But Dataforce analysis keeps you focused and focused. If this trend continued in the coming years, with nearly 40 percent of BEV and PHEV leaving the country within three years, billions would be at risk. In 2021 alone, the Federal Office for Economic Development and Export Control (Buffs) paid more than three billion euros for “innovation payments” to EV buyers for 585,000 applications.

Hold time needs to be extended

One way to slow down the process of obtaining this benefit at the expense of the tax fund would be to extend the holding period of the new subsidized vehicles to at least 24 months. . After all: Starting in 2023, the story will be of little use if the German subsidy bonuses melt away as planned.

opinion poll

Sure – that strengthens sales for a long time.

Not at all – if you want Stromer, you have to pay for it yourself.

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Electrification of road traffic is one of the main goals of German politics. However, there are obstacles along the way. Even if the main target of 15 million electronic vehicles by 2030 had been met (which Dataforce experts doubt), most passenger cars in Germany would still have combustion structures. In their analysis, however, market experts discovered another surprising feature.

According to this, more than 40 percent of subsidized electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are no longer in Germany after three years. The environmental bonus and innovation bonus were originally planned to create a wide range of cheaply used electronic cars on the German market for a long time. Because most drivers are dependent on the used market because new cars cannot be purchased. If the trend identified by Dataforce continues, according to which almost half of the electric vehicles were funded when new vehicles left the country shortly after, the benefits of German funding exercises could be questioned.

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