Stock index futures are under pressure Thursday, with investors already repositioning after the post-Powell surge in equities.
Consumer Discretionary is the weakest sector premarket, pulled down by Etsy and eBay after earnings. All the megacaps are lower.
Treasury yields are back on the march higher after tumbling yesterday. The 10-year yield is up 4 basis points to 2.96%. The 2-year, which dropped 14 basis points yesterday, is up 6 basis points to 2.68%.
Growth stocks popped after Fed chief Jay Powell said the Fed wasn’t actively considering a future rate hike of 75 basis points. By the close, 477 S&P components finished in the green on the best one-day gain for the index since 2020.
Morgan Stanley said earlier this week any good news had the potential to produce a “vicious bear market rally.”
But the Fed is still hawkish and the markets are still pricing in nearly 200 basis points more of tightening for 2022.
“While the Fed likely won’t admit it, we’re convinced they will be taking a close look at the impact on long run inflation expectations post the FOMC,” ING said. “Currently in the 2.8% area, the 10yr inflation expectation is just about tolerably below a 3% handle. The Fed would like to keep it that way.”
“Ideally the 10yr inflation expectation would trend back down to the 2.5% area. That would imply that the Fed has control of expectations. The risk, however, is for inflation expectations to break above 3%. Should that occur, the case for a 75bp hike in June would build.”
Before the bell, weekly initial jobless claims arrive ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Economists expect them to tick up slightly to 182K.
In energy, oil prices are drifting as OPEC+ meets today, with analysts looking for a small increase to production.