E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4784.00, Weakens Under 4770.00

view original post

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open higher based on the pre-market trade. The index was trading flat earlier in the session, but turned around after a surprise dip in weekly jobless claims reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy amid a surge in COVID-19 infections.

At 14:19 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4791.50, up 7.00 or +0.15%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $478.72, up $1.24 or +0.26%.

The Labor Department’s data showed the number of Americans filing for new unemployment claims slipped to 198,000 in the Christmas week from 205,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 208,000 applications for the latest week.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside. Keeping a lid on the index since Tuesday has been a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

A trade through 4798.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4770.00 will confirm the chart pattern. This won’t change the trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor range is 4798.00 to 4770.00. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 4784.00.

The short-term range is 4520.25 to 4798.00. If the closing price reversal top is confirmed then its retracement zone at 4659.00 to 4626.25 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4784.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4784.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 4798.00. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4784.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 4770.00. Taking out this level could trigger the start of a near-term sell-off with 4659.00 to 4626.25 the next likely target.