Stock Market To Rebound On GDP Growth, Declining Inflation Rates

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Nigerian capital market analysts expected the stock market to close positive this week following growth in Gross Domestic Product(GDP) rate and declining inflation rate.

Market Observers’ Optimism

According to Cowry Assets Management Limited, in the new week, the local bourse index will close positively as investors respond to the newly released positive economic numbers such as good growth in GDP rate and declining inflation rate. Also, we feel investors will continue to position in those companies that have sound fundamentals.

The chief operating officer of InvestData Consulting Limited, Mr Ambrose Omordion said: “the positive economic data and better than expected corporate earnings are a plus for the market, notwithstanding the likely outcome of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this week, just as the nation’s GDP has maintained consistent recovery to reveal potentials in the different sectors of the economy as a guide to investors while positioning for the new year.”

Analysts at Cordros Securities Limited said: “in the week ahead, we expect a mixed market performance as the bulls and bears are likely to be in a gridlock due to the opposing forces of bargain-hunting activities in stocks with attractive dividend yields ahead of 2021 full year dividend declarations and intermittent profit taking activities.

“Notwithstanding, we advise investors to take positions in only fundamentally justified stocks as the unimpressive macro story remains a significant headwind for corporate earnings.”

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However, analysts at Afrinvest Limited said: “this week, we expect a poor performance as weak sentiment lingers.”

Last Week’s Trading Activities

Bearish sentiments dominated the local bourse last week, as the market recorded losses on four of the five trading sessions following profit-taking activities. Accordingly, the All-Share Index (ASI) declined 53.74 points or 0.12 per cent week-on-week (W-o-W) to 43,199.27 points. Similarly, market capitalisation shed N28 billion W-o-W to close at N22.554 trillion.

Also, the sub-sector gauges mirrored the benchmark index as most of the indices closed southwards. The NGX Banking, NGX Insurance, NGX Consumer Goods, NGX Oil & Gas and the NGX Industrial indices plummeted by 1.60 per cent, 0.47 per cent, 1.41 per cent, 3.63 per cent and 0.10 per cent to close at 391.61 points, 176.79 points, 560.85 points, 368.03 points and 2,194.36 points respectively.

The market breadth for the week was positive as 15 equities appreciated in price, 49 equities depreciated in price, while 92 equities remained unchanged. Vitafoam Nigeria led the gainers table by 17.11 per cent to close at N21.90, per share. e-Tranzact International followed with a gain of 10.00 per cent to close at N2.09, while Prestige Assurance went up by 9.30 per cent to close to 47 kobo, per share.

On the other side, Cutix Plc led the decliners table by 42.68 per cent to close at N3.21, per share. Nigerian Exchange Group (NGXGroup) followed with a loss of 11.88 per cent to close at N15.95, while TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria declined by 9.97 per cent to close at N216.80, per share.

Overall, a total turnover of 1.392 billion shares worth N27.886 billion in 19,990 deals were traded last week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 1.471 billion shares valued at N20.941 billion that exchanged hands last week in 20,410 deals.

The Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 1.082 billion shares valued at N11.579 billion traded in 11,612 deals; contributing 77.72 per cent and 41.52 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 105.796 million shares worth N11.831 billion in 2,657 deals, while the Conglomerates Industry traded a turnover of 56.136 million shares worth N73.687 million in 575 deals.

Trading in the top three equities; FBN Holdings (FBNH), Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) and Sterling Bank accounted for 638.319 million shares worth N8.542 billion in 4,116 deals, contributing 45.85 per cent and 30.63 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

On Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) platform, a total of 54,936 units valued at N481,455.15 were traded last week in 19 deals compared with a total of 23,297 units valued at N792,386.34 transacted previous week in 34 deals, while on the Bond market, a total of 65,606 units valued at N68.507 million were traded last week in 9 deals compared with a total of 56,655 units valued at N60.795 million transacted previous week in 26 deals.

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