AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trend Changes to Up on Move Through .7304

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The Australian Dollar is edging higher early Thursday as surging energy prices gave it a lift against the U.S. Dollar. The Aussie is finding an upside in the global explosion of energy prices given Australia is a net exporter of energy and the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to Reuters.

At 03:54 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7283, up 0.0009 or +0.13%.

Also underpinning the Aussie has been a shift higher in local bond yields, with the 10-year yield up 36 basis points in the last 10 sessions to a four-month peak of 1.599%. That has taken yields 6 basis points over Treasuries, having traded around 10 basis points under for much of September.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7304 will change the main trend to up. Overtaking the next main top at .7316 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through .7170 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7226 will indicate renewed selling pressure.

The minor range is .7304 to .7226. The AUD/USD is trading on the strong side of its 50% level at .7265, making it support.

The second minor range is .7170 to .7304. Its retracement zone at .7237 to .7221 is also support. This zone stopped the selling on Wednesday.

On the upside, the first resistance is a 50% level at .7323, followed by a long-term Fibonacci level at .7379.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7265.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7265 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into .7304. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up. This could lead to a test of the main top at .7316, followed closely by the 50% level at .7323. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7265 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the support cluster at .7237, .7226 and .7221.

The minor Fibonacci level at .7221 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the main bottom at .7170 the next likely target.